Mesoscale Discussion 0400
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0343 PM CDT Sun May 13 2018

   Areas affected...portions of central/northwest IL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 132043Z - 132245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms with a risk for large hail
   will continue moving east across the area through 00Z/7 pm CDT.  A
   watch is not anticipated in the short term due to the expected
   isolated nature of the threat.

   DISCUSSION...A small cluster of strong/severe storms was in progress
   in the vicinity of the IA/IL border at 2040Z.  This cluster of
   storms was located north of a stationary front and within a zone of
   warm advection in the 850-700 mb layer.  Moderate elevated
   instability and 35-40 kts of effective bulk shear were contributing
   to storm organization, with occasional updrafts exhibiting the
   potential for large hail.  Relatively high WBZ heights and KDVN
   dual-pol KDP data suggest substantial melting of hail is occurring
   aloft.  Nevertheless, some continued potential will exist for at
   least marginally severe hail to occur at the surface for the next
   few hours.

   A watch is not anticipated in the very short term for this small
   cluster of storms.

   ..Bunting/Grams.. 05/13/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN...

   LAT...LON   41209088 41359009 41338949 41128855 40748829 40388827
               40198859 40218904 40218944 40238981 40219024 40369059
               40609093 40859100 41209088