Mesoscale Discussion 0394
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0400 PM CDT Sat May 12 2018

   Areas affected...Portions of the TX/OK Panhandles into west TX and
   far western OK

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 122100Z - 122330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe wind gusts and perhaps some hail
   will be possible through this evening. Watch issuance is not
   expected.

   DISCUSSION...Weak convergence along a surface dryline and subtle
   large-scale lift associated with a low-amplitude mid-level shortwave
   trough ejecting northeastward over the southern High Plains this
   afternoon should be sufficient to initiate at least isolated
   convection along the dryline over the next couple of hours. Recent
   visible satellite imagery shows increased mid-level cloudiness
   across west TX into the TX Panhandle. With temperatures east of the
   dryline reaching into the mid to upper 90s and greater low-level
   moisture in the eastern TX/OK Panhandles and far western OK, MLCAPE
   has increased into the 1000-2000 J/kg range. Mid-level flow is
   modestly stronger across the TX/OK Panhandles, and weakens quickly
   with southward extent into west TX. In addition, upper-level winds
   will remain weak across this area. Still, a deeply mixed boundary
   layer with very steep (8-9 degree C/km) low and mid-level lapse
   rates should enhance convective downdrafts. Isolated strong to
   severe winds appear to be the main threat, although some hail may
   occur with the strongest thunderstorms. Overall, thunderstorm
   coverage will likely remain too isolated to justify watch issuance.

   ..Gleason/Grams.. 05/12/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

   LAT...LON   34810144 35900123 36320110 36830059 36979997 36879953
               35469964 33080032 32510084 32480148 33070161 34810144