Mesoscale Discussion 0345
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1153 PM CDT Thu May 03 2018

   Areas affected...Portions of central...south-central and southwest
   TX

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 73...

   Valid 040453Z - 040700Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 73
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A continued threat for severe storms persists into the
   early overnight across WW 73.  Large hail and damaging winds will
   remain the primary severe-weather threats.

   DISCUSSION...Trends in mosaic radar imagery showed thunderstorm
   coverage and intensities have increased as expected across
   south-central TX, generally along and south of a line from KDRT to
   KERV.  The presence of a southeasterly low-level jet into this
   portion of TX is sustaining moisture return beneath steep midlevel
   lapse rates (7-8 C/km in the 2-6 km layer), resulting in moderate
   instability (MUCAPE ).  This combined with effective bulk shear up
   to 50 kt favors additional organized storms, while the
   aforementioned thermodynamics favor large hail occurrence.  At
   0435Z, the DRT NWS radar indicated severe winds (around 55 kt) at
   less than 200 feet above the radar.  These severe winds could reach
   the surface posing a damaging wind potential in the short term
   across far eastern Kinney County into part of western Uvalde County.

   Meanwhile, farther west, convection and a storm had formed along the
   southern extent of a dryline in southern Crockett County since
   0350Z.  Although additional storm development cannot be ruled out
   along the dryline, the large cluster of storms in the central and
   southeast part of WW 73 may limit greater moisture and overall
   destabilization from spreading to the northwest.

   ..Peters.. 05/04/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   29980176 30700078 31019997 31399943 31329864 30989791
               30529835 30059768 29559817 29139828 28759817 28629883
               28589904 28549928 28259937 28139991 28180020 29110082
               29530128 29780170 29980176