ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 202046 SPC MCD 202046 TXZ000-NMZ000-202315- Mesoscale Discussion 0279 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018 Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico...West Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 202046Z - 202315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A threat for large hail and wind damage may develop across parts of eastern New Mexico and west Texas late this afternoon into early evening. The threat is expected to remain isolated and weather watch issuance appears unlikely at this time. DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 1002 mb low eastern New Mexico with a dryline extending southward from the low into far west Texas. Surface dewpoints to the east of the dryline range from near 40 F at Clovis, NM to near 50 F at Midland, TX. In response to surface heating, a narrow corridor of instability is analyzed by the RAP from far west Texas extending northward into eastern New Mexico. Visible satellite imagery shows developing cumulus along the instability corridor with the most widespread cumulus located from near Roswell, NM northward to near Tucumcari, NM. A weak capping inversion is likely present but the cap should diminish over the next couple of hours as surface heating continues and large-scale ascent increases ahead of an approaching upper-level system in the Four Corners region. This should allow for the initiation of surfaced-based convection in east eastern New Mexico late this afternoon. The HRRR solution seems reasonable which develops a line of thunderstorms oriented from north to south across far eastern New Mexico and moves this line eastward into west Texas by early evening. Regional WSR-88D VWPs and objective analysis show strong deep-layer shear in place with 0-6 km shear estimated near 60 kt. This combined with steep mid-level lapse rates on forecast soundings may support strong updrafts capable of producing isolated large hail. A wind damage threat will also be possible. Instability should remain relatively weak and any severe threat should remain isolated. ..Broyles/Hart.. 04/20/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 33500236 34410243 34880269 35020325 34950402 34720436 34070435 32830409 31750382 31240362 30960337 30930271 31440243 33500236 NNNN