ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 160107 
SPC MCD 160107 
NCZ000-VAZ000-160230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0275
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0807 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Areas affected...Eastern NC...Southeast VA

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

Valid 160107Z - 160230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Trends will be monitored for a Tornado Watch downstream of
the ongoing convective line.

DISCUSSION...Current storm tracks suggest the ongoing convective
line will reach the edge of Tornado Watch 53 or 54 around 0230Z. The
southern portion of the line has shown a modest increase in forward
progression so there is some potential that the increased forward
speed brings the line to the edge of Tornado Watch 53 before 0230Z.

Continued theta-e advection is expected to offset nocturnal
stabilization somewhat with much of the region remaining weakly
unstable. At the same time, low-level wind fields will strengthen,
enlarging hodographs and creating a kinematic environment that is
very supportive of low-level rotation. There is some potential for
the convective line to be outflow dominant by the time it reaches
eastern NC/southeast VA but overall convective evolution remains
uncertain. However, given the favorable kinematic fields, trends
will be monitored closely and a downstream tornado watch will likely
be needed soon.

..Mosier/Hart.. 04/16/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON   34577765 34867788 35417792 37147729 37177606 36167603
            34917658 34537698 34507741 34577765 

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