Mesoscale Discussion 0259
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0617 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

   Areas affected...Far Southeastern MS...Southern AL and the Far
   Western FL Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 142317Z - 150115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado
   or two will continue across portions of far southern MS and far
   southern AL with some extension possible into the western FL
   Panhandle later tonight.

   DISCUSSION...Heavy precipitation across western portions of the
   discussion area (far southeastern MS and adjacent southern AL) has
   moved little over the past hour as the northern portions of the
   convective line continues to accelerate eastward while the southern
   portion moves significantly slower. Given the inflection in the
   convective line and abundant precipitation, the development of a
   meso low appears likely to be ongoing near the far southern AL/MS
   border. Moisture convergence is also maximized in this region,
   further strengthening the expectation of meso low development.   

   At the same time, the southern portion of the convective line is
   expected to begin accelerating eastward as a shortwave trough
   approaches from the west. Some of this acceleration appears to be
   beginning now. This should allow the line to remain co-located with
   its outflow, increasing updraft strength and the potential for
   damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. Additionally,
   increasing low-level shear from both the meso low and larger scale
   strengthening of 2-3 km AGL winds will augment the severe threat. A
   watch will likely be needed to cover this lingering threat.

   ..Mosier/Guyer.. 04/14/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX...

   LAT...LON   30998870 31668789 32058690 31328616 30298646 30118759
               30128834 30258902 30998870