ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 051713 
SPC MCD 051713 
NDZ000-SDZ000-052115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0107
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1113 AM CST Mon Mar 05 2018

Areas affected...South-central and West-central North Dakota

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 051713Z - 052115Z

SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snowfall will continue across parts of
south-central and west-central North Dakota late this morning into
early this afternoon. Snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour may occur
within the heaviest bands with locally higher rates possible.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 1000 mb low near
Aberdeen, South Dakota with an inverted surface trough extending
north-northwestward from the low across central and northwestern
North Dakota. Surface winds to the east of the trough are backed to
the east with surface temperatures generally in the mid to upper 20s
F across south-central and west-central North Dakota. Strong
isentropic ascent is occurring above the surface trough where radar
imagery shows a band of moderate to occasionally heavy snowfall.
Model forecasts including the HRRR suggest that the band will
continue to persist into the early afternoon but should begin to
weaken after that. It appears that the heaviest snowfall will occur
from the Bismarck area north-northwestward along the Missouri River
over the next 2 to 4 hours.

..Broyles.. 03/05/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON   45939891 45919956 46680075 47660182 47970204 48280164
            48140113 46679908 46189861 45939891 

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