ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 282013 
SPC MCD 282013 
TXZ000-282245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0099
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2018

Areas affected...North TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 282013Z - 282245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...New thunderstorm development is possible this afternoon
eastward from the Texas Big Country across North Texas, with some
increase in storm intensity/severe potential by early evening for
isolated hail and strong, gusty winds.

DISCUSSION...Trends in GOES-16 visible imagery indicated an increase
in cumulus/towering cumulus development along the dry line since
around 1830Z, where a northeast-southwest oriented break in cirrus
clouds allowed surface temperatures to rise through the 70s. The dry
line was analyzed early this afternoon from central/southwest OK
through the TX Big Country to southwest TX. Recently, an area of
cirrus clouds moved across the dry line development and further may
temper heating and vertical cloud development.  However, any
additional surface heating near and east of the dry line will aid
destabilization, while height falls occur with the approach of the
Southwest states upper trough, suggesting the potential for
additional convective development.  MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg and
strong shear suggest storm organization will be likely, given a
sustained updraft.  However, this potential may be delayed until
early evening with the arrival of the stronger ascent with the
trough, when the threat for hail and/or strong, gusty winds would be
greater.

..Peters/Hart.. 02/28/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...

LAT...LON   33059860 33449735 33469598 32729579 32049627 31919735
            31939873 32199939 32499931 33059860 

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