ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 041144 
SPC MCD 041144 
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-041345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1866
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0544 AM CST SUN DEC 04 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST LA...SOUTHERN MS AND AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 041144Z - 041345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY AFFECT COASTAL REGIONS OF LA...MS...
AND AL THIS MORNING...BUT THE OVERALL THREAT APPEARS LOW.

DISCUSSION...A SERIES OF CELLS HAVE CONGEALED INTO A SMALL MCS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST LA...WHICH APPEARS TO BE COINCIDENT WITH A WARM
FRONT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ALONG
COASTAL MS AND AL...BUT INSTABILITY REMAINS VERY WEAK AS OF 12Z. THIS
AREA OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EAST/NORTHEASTWARD AT AROUND
25 KT WHICH WOULD BRING IT INTO COASTAL AL BY ABOUT 13Z. THIS
PARTICULAR CELL APPEARS SEMI-ORGANIZED WITH BROAD CYCLONIC ROTATION.
LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT
IF THIS FEATURE HOLDS TOGETHER. A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AS WELL...CONDITIONAL ON UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS PROVIDING
SUFFICIENT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY FAR ENOUGH INLAND.

..JEWELL/EDWARDS.. 12/04/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...

LAT...LON   29058992 29408950 29778917 29888887 30418848 30708795
            30658752 30408740 30208740 28988893 28898930 28928964
            29058992 

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