MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1864
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0850 PM CST SAT DEC 03 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN LA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 040250Z - 040445Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...VERY LIMITED SEVERE RISK OVER COASTAL AREAS OF
   SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY/SPREAD EAST OVER THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS.  WW ISSUANCE REMAINS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER
   THE NORTHWESTERN GULF JUST SOUTH OF 7R5 (CAMERON LA)...WITH A COLD
   FRONT NOW OFF THE TX COAST OVER THE WESTERN GULF...AND A WARM FRONT
   EXTENDING EAST FROM THE LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE LA COASTLINE.  THE
   EVENING LCH (LAKE CHARLES) RAOB REVEALS VERY LITTLE INLAND CAPE...AND
   A VERY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.  THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE INLAND
   LIGHTNING OBSERVED AT THIS TIME CONFIRMS THE WEAK CAPE WITH
   NORTHWARD EXTENT...AND THUS LITTLE IF ANY HAIL RISK IS EVIDENT. 
   ADDITIONALLY...THE VERY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
   SEEMS LIKELY TO LIMIT ANY RISK FOR DOWNDRAFTS REACHING SURFACE TO
   THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL PARISHES.

   WITH TIME...SOME SMALL NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT COULD
   OCCUR INTO SOUTHEAST LA...AND THE LATEST NCEP HRRR DOES INDICATE A
   FEW STRONGER CELLS EVOLVING AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND
   TOWARD/AFTER MIDNIGHT.  DEPENDING UPON THE DEGREE OF NORTHWARD
   PROGRESS OF THE FRONT...LIMITED TORNADO THREAT COULD ADVANCE A BIT
   FARTHER INLAND WITH TIME THAN IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED...ALONG WITH
   POTENTIAL FOR A LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUST OR TWO.  HOWEVER...SUCH RISK
   WOULD APPEAR VERY UNLIKELY TO INCREASE TO THE EXTENT THAT A WATCH
   WOULD BE CONSIDERED THIS EVENING.

   ..GOSS/GRAMS.. 12/04/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   29639331 29999298 30059217 30019075 29879017 29499003
               28999016 28979084 29419194 29489266 29639331