ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 302243 SPC MCD 302243 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-010015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1859 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0443 PM CST WED NOV 30 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN GA...SC...SRN AND CNTRL NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 514 VALID 302243Z - 010015Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 514 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WIND DAMAGE AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL CONTINUE TO A SEVERE THREAT...THE THREAT SHOULD BE LOCALIZED ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A DOWNSTREAM WEATHER WATCH. DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH FROM WESTERN VIRGINIA SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD INTO EASTERN GEORGIA...ALONG WHICH A MULTI-SEGMENTED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING. THE LINE IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A BAND OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A 30 TO 45 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE LINE IN SPITE OF VERY WEAK INSTABILITY. THE LATEST WSR-88D VWP OUT OF COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA SHOWS VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR ESTIMATED AT 83 KNOTS. THE VWP ALSO SHOWS STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AT NEAR 700 M2/S2. THIS WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE WITH THE FASTER MOVING BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. A TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH ROTATING CELL ELEMENTS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. DUE TO THE WEAKENING OF LIGHTNING AND MID-LEVEL REFLECTIVITY TRENDS OVER THE LAST HALF HOUR SUGGEST THE SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN LOCALIZED FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 11/30/2016 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...FFC... LAT...LON 35418186 34608274 33888310 33068320 33078195 33688069 34207968 34647870 35607885 36217980 36008105 35418186 NNNN