ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 300006 
SPC MCD 300006 
MSZ000-LAZ000-300200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1845
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0606 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LA INTO MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 504

VALID 300006Z - 300200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 504 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR TORNADIC THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ACROSS WATCH
504.

DISCUSSION...DISCRETE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WITHIN A
WEAK-WARM-ADVECTION REGIME FROM NORTHEAST LA EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH NORTH OF THE JACKSON MS AREA AND INTO EAST-CENTRAL MS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE SPREADING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND
NORTHEASTWARD...WITH A RISK FOR TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE
HAIL. THE VAD WIND PROFILES AT GWX AND JAN ARE INDICATING AMPLE DEEP
SHEAR FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WITH SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR TO ENHANCE SRH IN SUPPORT OF A CONTINUED TORNADO
RISK.

CONSISTENT WITH A RENEWED INFLUX OF EVEN RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...MOSAIC RADAR LOOPS ARE INDICATING AN
UPTICK IN SMALL/LOW-REFLECTIVITY ECHOES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST LA...WITH AN UPTICK IN ELEVATED CORES ON THE
COOL SIDE OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN LA. WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS OF 70-73F SITUATED ACROSS SOUTHERN LA...CONTINUED
MOISTURE/WARM ADVECTION -- ENHANCED BY A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL 
JET -- WILL LIKELY FOSTER A PERSISTENT SEVERE RISK THROUGH THE
EVENING. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SRH AND THE FAVORABLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
MAY FAVOR A NOCTURNAL TORNADO RISK.

..COHEN.. 11/30/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...

LAT...LON   31639311 32829144 33698890 33308831 32818871 32059022
            31459156 31639311 

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