ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 292324 SPC MCD 292324 TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-300100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1843 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0524 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TN AND NORTHERN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 292324Z - 300100Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS EXISTS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TN INTO NORTHERN AL. THIS AREA IS BEING MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE THIS EVENING. DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MS INTO SOUTHWEST TN HAVE GENERALLY BEEN SUB-SEVERE GIVEN THE POOR QUALITY DEW POINTS /MAINLY IN THE 50S/...RESULTING IN LACKLUSTER INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH OF A WARM FRONT. THIS WARM FRONT EXTENDS GENERALLY WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MS INTO NORTHERN AL. AS A LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...THE FRONT MAY CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHWARD TO THE VICINITY OF THE AL/TN STATE LINE. GUIDANCE VARIES ON THIS SCENARIO...AND JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE BETTER QUALITY MOISTURE WILL ADVANCE IS UNCLEAR. SHOULD THE BETTER WARM SECTOR TO THE SOUTH SPREAD INTO THIS AREA...ANY SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS WILL PRESENT SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS GIVEN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LARGE...CURVED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. AS A RESULT...A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT WHERE LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED. DAMAGING WINDS ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN CURRENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE NORTHWARD PUSH OF THE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...RESULTING IN A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT...THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE THIS EVENING. ..LEITMAN/HART.. 11/29/2016 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG... LAT...LON 34608566 35218527 35548565 35628637 35588661 35558728 35268812 34928834 34628840 34198846 34078828 34058766 34178666 34368596 34608566 NNNN