MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1843
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0524 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TN AND NORTHERN AL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 292324Z - 300100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS EXISTS ACROSS PARTS
   OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TN INTO NORTHERN AL. THIS AREA IS BEING MONITORED
   CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE THIS EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MS INTO
   SOUTHWEST TN HAVE GENERALLY BEEN SUB-SEVERE GIVEN THE POOR QUALITY
   DEW POINTS /MAINLY IN THE 50S/...RESULTING IN LACKLUSTER INSTABILITY
   TO THE NORTH OF A WARM FRONT. THIS WARM FRONT EXTENDS GENERALLY WEST
   TO EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MS INTO NORTHERN AL. AS A LOW LEVEL JET
   INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...THE FRONT MAY CONTINUE TO
   DRIFT NORTHWARD TO THE VICINITY OF THE AL/TN STATE LINE. GUIDANCE
   VARIES ON THIS SCENARIO...AND JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE BETTER QUALITY
   MOISTURE WILL ADVANCE IS UNCLEAR. SHOULD THE BETTER WARM SECTOR TO
   THE SOUTH SPREAD INTO THIS AREA...ANY SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS WILL
   PRESENT SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS GIVEN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
   LARGE...CURVED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. AS A RESULT...A COUPLE OF
   TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT
   WHERE LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED. DAMAGING WINDS
   ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE. 

   GIVEN CURRENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE NORTHWARD PUSH OF THE WARM FRONT
   AND ASSOCIATED MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...RESULTING
   IN A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT...THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY
   FOR POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE THIS EVENING.

   ..LEITMAN/HART.. 11/29/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

   LAT...LON   34608566 35218527 35548565 35628637 35588661 35558728
               35268812 34928834 34628840 34198846 34078828 34058766
               34178666 34368596 34608566