ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 291838 
SPC MCD 291838 
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-292045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1839
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LA INTO PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 291838Z - 292045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A VERY GRADUAL INCREASE IN WARM-SECTOR CONVECTION ONGOING
AT THIS TIME MAY YIELD LOCAL/ISOLATED SEVERE RISK IN THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO.  AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS A WATCH WILL NOT BE NEEDED IN THE
IMMEDIATE TERM...BUT MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY NECESSARY ASSUMING A
CONTINUED/GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.

DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS REVEAL GRADUAL
INCREASES IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY WITHIN HORIZONTAL
CONVECTIVE ROLLS...OCCURRING IN A MOIST (LOW 70S DEWPOINTS)
WARM-SECTOR THAT IS GRADUALLY HEATING/DESTABILIZING EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.  A COUPLE OF SHOWERS HAVE EVOLVED...ALONG WITH A LONE
THUNDERSTORM NOW ONGOING NEAR THE CATAHOULA/CONCORDIA PARISH LINE. 

SHEAR PROFILES WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR -- THOUGH LACKING A BIT WITH
RESPECT TO LOW-LEVEL SHEAR -- REMAIN QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS...AS MID-LEVEL FLOW NEAR 75 KT FROM THE
SOUTHWEST REMAINS ATOP THE REGION.  INDEED...THE AFOREMENTIONED
THUNDERSTORM HAS SHOWN WEAK ROTATION/SUPERCELL STRUCTURE ON RADAR...
AND EXPECT THAT ANY ADDITIONAL UPDRAFTS WHICH EVOLVE AND BECOME
SUSTAINED TO LIKEWISE ACQUIRE ROTATION.  WHILE A WATCH IS NOT
IMMINENT DUE TO WHAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED STORM COVERAGE OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO...THE CONTINUED/GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORMS/SEVERE
RISK MAY REQUIRE WATCH CONSIDERATION IN THE 19-20Z TIME FRAME.

..GOSS.. 11/29/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   30749346 31219351 32649242 33359069 32658935 31458925
            31169002 30849229 30749346 

NNNN