ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 282228 
SPC MCD 282228 
IAZ000-MOZ000-290000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1831
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0428 PM CST MON NOV 28 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MO AND EASTERN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 282228Z - 290000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS OR POSSIBLY A WEAK...BRIEF
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED IN BOTH SPACE AND TIME AND A WATCH
IS NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EASTWARD ADVANCING
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN IA AND NORTHEAST MO
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MEAGER...WITH MLCAPE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 250 J/KG. HOWEVER...STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT...COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODEST MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN LOW-TOPPED STORMS.
INSPECTION OF DVN AND DMX VWPS SHOW FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
FOR CONTINUED MID TO LOW LEVEL ROTATION. WHILE THE LACK OF A BETTER
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE
ROBUST CONVECTION...LOW LCL HEIGHTS IN THE PRESENCE OF EFFECTIVE SRH
VALUES AROUND 250 M2/S2 COULD LEAD TO A FEW FUNNEL CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF...WEAK TORNADO. THE STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER FLOW
COMBINED WITH MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAST STORM MOTION COULD
ALSO LEAD TO A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS. THIS THREAT SHOULD WANE WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION ENSUES OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.

..LEITMAN/HART.. 11/28/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   40369271 42029280 43299274 43469235 43239199 42559152
            41739128 40939138 40379162 39829192 39589218 39569253
            39659273 40369271 

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