ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 180842 
SPC MCD 180842 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-181245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1816
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 AM CST FRI NOV 18 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN NEB...CENTRAL AND EASTERN SD...FAR
SOUTHWEST MN

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 180842Z - 181245Z

SUMMARY...SNOWFALL RATES NEAR ONE INCH PER HOUR ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEB INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF SD AND FAR SOUTHWEST MN THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL HAS
REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEB AND SD...ASSOCIATED
WITH A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN SNOWFALL RATES IS FORECAST TO OCCUR THROUGH
MID-LATE MORNING AS THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW /OBSERVED NEAR ST.
JOSEPH MO AS OF 08Z/ CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND MATURE WHILE SHIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED
FROM NORTH-CENTRAL NEB INTO EASTERN SD THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. RATES NEAR
ONE INCH /LOCALLY HIGHER/ WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN MORE
PRONOUNCED BANDED STRUCTURES THAT EVOLVE. A PLUME OF STEEPER LAPSE
RATES ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT MAY ALSO IMPINGE ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SWATH...AND COULD POTENTIALLY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT OF SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MN THIS MORNING. 

AS THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE SHIFTS EASTWARD...A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN AND WILL CORRESPOND WITH AN
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION RATES...ESPECIALLY AFTER 12Z.

..ROGERS.. 11/18/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...

LAT...LON   44279607 43519686 42599778 42329818 42049899 41999939
            42279969 42739963 43369921 44259857 44639804 44899744
            45089658 45009610 44279607 

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