ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 041937 SPC MCD 041937 TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-042130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1814 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0237 PM CDT FRI NOV 04 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN NEW MEXICO AND THE EL PASO AREA OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 041937Z - 042130Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...INCLUDING THE RISK FOR SUPERCELLS... APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA BY 21-23Z. ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED THAT A WATCH WILL BE NEEDED...PRIMARILY DUE TO SIZE OF AREA IMPACTED AND COVERAGE OF STORMS EXPECTED...PORTIONS OF THE GREATER EL PASO METROPOLITAN AREA COULD BE AFFECTED...AND TRENDS WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. DISCUSSION...MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS ONGOING WITH DAYTIME HEATING OF A MOIST AIR MASS...GENERALLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO...TO THE WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER...INTO THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA. INHIBITION ALSO APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY ERODING...AS THE CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER ARIZONA VERY SLOWLY MIGRATES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS MAY LEAD TO THE INITIATION OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME...IF NOT A BIT BEFORE. ALTHOUGH PEAK CAPE SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW 1000 J/KG...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONG BENEATH 40+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 500 MB. THIS ENVIRONMENT PROBABLY IS CONDUCIVE TO THE EVOLUTION OF AT LEAST ONE OR TWO SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG SURFACE GUSTS. CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO BECOME SIZABLE BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND THIS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A RISK FOR TORNADOES IN STORMS THAT COULD IMPACT AREAS NEAR/SOUTHWEST OF THE GREATER EL PASO METROPOLITAN AREA. ..KERR/GUYER.. 11/04/2016 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EPZ...TWC... LAT...LON 31040796 31250841 31710860 32320911 33120873 32590766 31800623 31100623 30390726 30670767 31040796 NNNN