ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 302246 
SPC MCD 302246 
UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-302345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1809
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0546 PM CDT SUN OCT 30 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NE NV...SRN ID

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 302246Z - 302345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NE
NV AND SRN ID OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED
TO BE TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW OVER NCNTRL NV WITH
A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING NWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PART
OF THE STATE. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ON THE NRN END OF THE
MOIST CORRIDOR WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
F AND SBCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 500 J/KG BY RAP
ANALYSIS. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING SUPPORTED BY LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST. AS
CELLS MOVE NEWD ACROSS NE NV AND INTO SRN ID EARLY THIS
EVENING...STRONG SPEED SHEAR FROM THE SFC TO 700 MB ALONG WITH STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE
MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS. ANY SHORT LINE SEGMENT THAT CAN OBTAIN
BOWING CHARACTERISTICS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS.

..BROYLES/GUYER.. 10/30/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SLC...PIH...BOI...LKN...

LAT...LON   40711666 40391614 40511554 40821480 41561404 42381390
            42891406 43231430 43371495 43321544 42941607 41871663
            40711666 

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