ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 192349 
SPC MCD 192349 
OKZ000-TXZ000-200115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1799
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0649 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/CNTRL/NERN OK...NW TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 192349Z - 200115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND WIND MAY
EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST
TX. A WATCH IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY PROGRESSING SWD FROM SWRN OK
INTO NERN OK...WITH MORE RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING
BEHIND THE FRONT. A FEW ORGANIZED CLUSTERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS
NERN OK...BUT CONVECTION HAS QUICKLY BECOME UNDERCUT BY THE SURGING
FRONT. THE RELATIVELY MORE STABLE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS THAT NEW
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING WITHIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL...ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED OCCURRENCES
ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY BRIEF UPWARD PULSES IN
TSTM INTENSITY. 

OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
FROM NWRN TX INTO SWRN OK. THE RELATIVELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE
VALUES CURRENTLY NEAR 1500 J/KG/ MAY SUPPORT A COUPLE STRONG STORMS
CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS BEFORE BECOMING
UNDERCUT BY THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND
SUBSEQUENT BOUNDARY-LAYER STABILIZATION SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN TSTM INTENSITY INTO THE LATE EVENING.

..ROGERS/HART.. 10/19/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   35569538 35029623 34299695 33739812 33489898 33569964
            33729985 33899983 34409862 35499735 35849621 36369475
            36039457 35569538 

NNNN