ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 172311 
SPC MCD 172311 
NYZ000-180015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1791
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0611 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 172311Z - 180015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A LINE OF TSTMS WILL AFFECT THE ERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO
AND AREAS TO THE E OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE. A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW A SMALL CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING
ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO...WITH AREAS OF ENHANCED VELOCITY ACCOMPANYING
EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES. BUOYANCY IS LIMITED BY COOL TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW-60S F N OF A W-E ORIENTED SFC BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTRL
PORTIONS OF NY...AND IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW FAR E CONVECTION WILL BE
MAINTAINED AT ITS CURRENT INTENSITY. HOWEVER...20-30 KT OF LOW-LEVEL
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION MAY SUPPORT A LOCALIZED RISK FOR STRONG WIND
GUSTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT MOVES ACROSS NRN NY.

..ROGERS/GUYER.. 10/17/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON   44527592 44247507 43907456 43477479 43237555 43227639
            43267697 43447713 44097629 44527592 

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