ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 141529 
SPC MCD 141529 
WAZ000-ORZ000-141730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1787
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1029 AM CDT FRI OCT 14 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL REGIONS OF WRN WASHINGTON/NWRN OREGON

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 141529Z - 141730Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
TORNADO/WATERSPOUT REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 16-17Z...BUT THE THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN TOO MARGINAL FOR WATCH ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...AN INTENSE LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING COASTAL
NWRN WA AND VANCOUVER ISLAND AT 1530Z. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...SEVERAL ROTATING CELLS HAVE MOVED ONSHORE EARLIER THIS
MORNING BEFORE QUICKLY WEAKENING INLAND WITHIN A MORE STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS APPROACHING THE NWRN
ORE/WRN WA COAST...WHICH HAS EVOLVED INTO MORE OF A LINEAR MODE
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS ACTIVITY. WITH GREATER THAN 50 KTS OF FLOW JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE PER LOCAL VWP DATA AND SHORT-TERM FCST
SOUNDINGS...SOME THREAT FOR CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
IS STILL SUFFICIENT FOR A BRIEF WATERSPOUT/TORNADO...BUT GRADUALLY
VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD TEND TO DECREASE THIS THREAT WITH
TIME. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED BY VERY
WEAK INSTABILITY...AND WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

..DEAN/DARROW.. 10/14/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SEW...PQR...

LAT...LON   45092397 45402451 46792461 47802487 48352477 48302376
            47902334 46912329 45802320 45292318 45032337 45092397 

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