ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 091814 
SPC MCD 091814 
NMZ000-AZZ000-092015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1781
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0114 PM CDT SUN OCT 09 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF E CNTRL NEW MEXICO...WRN AND CNTRL NEW
MEXICO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 091814Z - 092015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED
BY AT LEAST SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.  IT STILL
SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT A WATCH WILL BE NEEDED /DUE PRIMARILY TO THE
ANTICIPATED SPARSE COVERAGE OF STRONGER STORMS/...BUT TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...WEAK TO MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION APPEARS
TO BE ONGOING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND
ADJACENT EASTERN ARIZONA...PARTICULARLY FROM NEAR THE MOGOLLON
MOUNTAINS INTO THE VICINITY OF SAN MATEO MOUNTAINS.  THIS IS WHERE
OROGRAPHIC FORCING APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTING THE GRADUAL INITIATION
OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...IN THE PRESENCE OF AT LEAST WEAK
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW
PROGRESSING EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  AS
INHIBITION FOR BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS BECOMES INCREASINGLY
NEGLIGIBLE WITH CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION INTO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 19-21Z.

LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE REGION ARE RATHER LIGHT...BUT
VEERING WITH HEIGHT BENEATH 40-50 KT CYCLONIC WESTERLY FLOW IN THE
THE 300-250 MB LAYER IS CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR.  AT
LEAST SHORT-LIVED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITHIN THE MOST INTENSE
DISCRETE CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE AS ACTIVITY PROPAGATES EASTWARD
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.  SEVERE HAIL SEEMS THE
PRIMARY POTENTIAL SEVERE HAZARD...BUT LOCALLY STRONG SURFACE GUSTS
MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

..KERR/HART.. 10/09/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...

LAT...LON   34370876 35030785 35160678 34710664 33540668 32760712
            32550819 32660891 33170960 34070934 34370876 

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