ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 080622 
SPC MCD 080622 
NCZ000-SCZ000-080815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1776
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0122 AM CDT SAT OCT 08 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...GRAND STRAND OF SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 080622Z - 080815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN OUTER BAND OF HURRICANE MATTHEW WILL PROBABLY POSE A
CONTINUED RISK FOR LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONE DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.  A LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO WILL ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGER AND MORE PERSISTENT CIRCULATIONS.

DISCUSSION...KLTX RADAR IMAGERY DURING THE PAST HOUR HAS SHOWN A FEW
MINI SUPERCELLS OVER NORTHEASTERN SC AND OFFSHORE WITHIN A
CONVECTIVE BAND LOCATED WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF
HURRICANE MATTHEW.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW UPPER 70S TEMPS AND
MID 70S DEWPOINTS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND TEMPS FALL INTO THE
LOWER-MID 70S 20-40 MILES INLAND.  BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK OF
HURRICANE MATTHEW...WEAK BUOYANCY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE 2 CLOSEST
TIERS OF COUNTIES TO THE COAST.  MODIFYING KLTX VAD FOR OBSERVED
STORM MOTION OF 110 DEG AT 40 KT YIELDS 130 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH.  IN
SUMMARY...CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE FOR
WEAK LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND A RISK
FOR A WEAK/BRIEF TORNADO MAY MAXIMIZE WITH THE STRONGER/MORE
PERSISTENT MESOCYCLONES.

..SMITH/THOMPSON.. 10/08/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...

LAT...LON   33897821 34107932 33937967 33537911 33897821 

NNNN