MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1770
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0622 PM CDT THU OCT 06 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN KS INTO SWRN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 062322Z - 070045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THREAT FOR A TORNADO...DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL
   SPREAD INTO A SMALL PART OF SWRN MO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AT THIS
   TIME IT APPEARS THREAT WILL PROBABLY REMAIN TOO LIMITED IN AREAL
   EXTENT FOR A WW.

   DISCUSSION...THIS EVENING A CLUSTER OF STORMS WITH A LEADING HP
   SUPERCELL IS MOVING THROUGH SERN KS. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY
   CONTINUE INTO SWRN MO THIS EVENING. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS
   INSTABILITY BECOMES INCREASINGLY MARGINAL WITH EWD EXTENT INTO SWRN
   MO TO THE NORTH OF A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE THE SFC LAYER
   UNDERWENT ONLY PARTIAL RECOVERY. NEVERTHELESS...LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
   REMAIN LARGE AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR FROM 40-50 KT WILL CONTINUE TO
   SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES WITH A THREAT FOR A
   TORNADO...DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL...AT LEAST INTO EXTREME SWRN
   MO NEXT COUPLE HOURS. HOWEVER...THE TENDENCY WILL BE FOR THE LLJ TO
   SHIFT NORTH OF THIS REGION WITH TIME...AND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   CONTINUES TO COOL...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL
   LIKELY ONLY REMAIN OVER A SMALL PORTION OF SWRN MO.

   ..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 10/06/2016


   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...

   LAT...LON   38109485 38049418 37569396 37309417 37609499 38109485