MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1767
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0139 PM CDT THU OCT 06 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/WESTERN OK AND NORTHWESTERN TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 061839Z - 062045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...AS WELL AS FAR
   NORTHWEST TEXAS. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO AS WELL...MOST
   LIKELY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WATCH ISSUANCE IS LIKELY
   WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE AND SFC OBSERVATIONS
   DEPICT A DRY LINE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN KS TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
   ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST OK AND INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. ADDITIONALLY...AN
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM PRIOR CONVECTION STRETCHES FROM JUST NORTH OF
   TULSA TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...REACHING SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. BETWEEN
   THESE TWO BOUNDARIES...CONTINUED INSOLATION AND RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER
   MOISTURE ARE YIELDING AMPLE BUOYANCY...CHARACTERIZED BY AROUND
   2000-3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. WHILE SFC CONVERGENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY
   STRONG...MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF
   A WESTERN US TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

   SOME OF THESE INITIAL CELLS MAY GAIN SUPERCELLULAR
   CHARACTERISTICS...AIDED BY EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS...ESPECIALLY
   ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. IN ADDITION TO UPDRAFT
   ORGANIZATION/ROTATION...RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL
   SUPPORT LARGE HAIL IN DISCRETE CONVECTION. A TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO
   BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY ACROSS FAR NORTH-CENTRAL OK...WHERE SFC FLOW
   WILL BE SLIGHTLY BACKED CLOSER TO THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY. THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
   HOWEVER...LINEAR FORCING ALONG THE DRY LINE AND A SOUTHWARD-SURGING
   COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY FORCE THE SEVERE THREAT TO TRANSITION TO
   PRIMARILY STRONG WIND. MOREOVER...THE MID-LEVEL WIND PROFILE WILL
   LIKELY ENCOURAGE CELL SPLITS...AS WELL AS A SIGNIFICANT COMPONENT OF
   CELL MOTION ALONG THE INITIATING BOUNDARIES. SUCH UPSCALE GROWTH
   WILL ALSO AID A TRANSITION TO LINE SEGMENTS WITH AN ATTENDANT WIND
   THREAT. REGARDLESS...THE EXPECTED STORM COVERAGE AND FAVORABLE
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SUGGEST AN APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT
   SHOULD EMERGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS SUCH...WATCH ISSUANCE IS
   LIKELY BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.

   ..PICCA/KERR.. 10/06/2016


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   34099885 33779950 33750011 34090033 34470028 35459982
               36349912 36919871 36949739 36939723 36679682 35839711
               35119762 34799802 34099885