ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 061822 SPC MCD 061822 IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-062015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1766 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0122 PM CDT THU OCT 06 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN KS...SERN NEB...SWRN IA...NWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 061822Z - 062015Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR ALL SVR HAZARDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON FROM CNTRL KS INTO PARTS OF WRN IA. RAPID TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...AND A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY 20Z. DISCUSSION...A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL ACCELERATE NEWD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WILL SUPPORT AN EWD COLD FRONTAL SURGE ACROSS WRN/CNTRL PORTIONS OF KS/NEB AS A SFC LOW BECOMES REPOSITIONED TOWARDS THE MID-MO VALLEY THIS EVENING. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE...ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING LEADING TO A WEAKENING OF CINH...IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A RAPID INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON FROM SRN NEB INTO CNTRL KS. OTHER TSTMS WILL PERSIST/DEVELOP ALONG A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS FAR SERN NEB INTO CNTRL IA...AS A 30-40 KT LLJ REMAINS FOCUSED ACROSS THIS AREA. ONE POTENTIAL AREA OF IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TSTM MOVING INTO SWRN IA /AS OF 1820Z/ AND TRACKING CLOSE TO THE WARM FRONT...WHILE THE AIR MASS DESTABILIZES ACROSS WRN/CNTRL IA. THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HAS CENTERED AROUND THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION THAT CAN OCCUR...BUT VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS REVEAL MORE WIDESPREAD CLEARING ACROSS NERN KS INTO SWRN IA AMIDST A THINNING CIRRUS FIELD. MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS IA TO 2000-3000 J/KG ACROSS CNTRL KS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED AROUND THE TIME OF MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. STRONG LOW-MIDLEVEL WIND PROFILES WILL FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP. AN ASSOCIATED TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GREATEST ALONG THE WARM FRONT...AND PERHAPS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY DISCRETE TSTMS THAT INITIALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO CNTRL KS. THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A MCS THIS EVENING...WITH A DMGG WIND THREAT EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY BECOME DOMINANT. ..ROGERS/KERR.. 10/06/2016 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... LAT...LON 38829890 39749800 40429650 41379549 41689480 41699368 41339337 40689374 39379526 38169632 37069700 37079871 38829890 NNNN