ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 050428 
SPC MCD 050428 
OKZ000-KSZ000-050530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1761
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 PM CDT TUE OCT 04 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN OK...SERN KS.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 492...

VALID 050428Z - 050530Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 492
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SVR POTENTIAL PERSISTS WITHIN WW AREA...AND MAY EXIST IN
ISOLATED FASHION FARTHER S ACROSS PORTIONS E-CENTRAL OK.  MAIN
CONCERNS WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.  OVERALL
THREAT WILL DIMINISH WITH EWD EXTENT AS ACTIVITY ENCOUNTERS
GRADUALLY/PROGRESSIVELY LESS-FAVORABLE BOUNDARY-LAYER BUOYANCY.  WW
EXTENSION MAY BE CONSIDERED FOR PORTIONS ERN OK.

DISCUSSION....
TWO PRIMARY AREAS OF CONVECTION HAVE EVOLVED...
1.  QUASI-LINEAR BAND OF TSTMS AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT FROM PORTIONS
GARFIELD COUNTY OK NEWD ACROSS OSAGE COUNTY OK TO SERN KS.  
2.  BKN SWATH OF MIXED-MODE CONVECTION -- MULTICELLS AND WEAK
SUPERCELLS -- FROM MCCLAIN TO CREEK COUNTIES OK.  THIS INCLUDES
SUPERCELL NEAR OKFUSKEE/CREEK COUNTY LINE AS OF 415Z...SAME AS
EARLIER SRN/ERN OKC METRO-AREA STORM.  THESE TSTMS LIKELY ARE
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED...DESPITE EFFECTIVE SFC-BASED INFLOW PARCELS...
GIVEN STRENGTHENING CINH. 

SBCINH IN BOTH AREAS WILL INCREASE WITH EWD EXTENT AND WITH TIME...
AS MAGNITUDE AND DEPTH OF NEAR-SFC STATIC STABILITY INCREASES
BECAUSE OF BOTH DIABATIC SFC COOLING AND WEAKENING MOISTURE/THETAE
WITH EWD EXTENT.  REGARDLESS...CONVECTION WILL PERSIST NEAR SVR
LEVELS FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS AS IT MOVES THROUGH NARROW CORRIDOR
OF FAVORABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ELEVATED LOW-LEVEL WAA LEFTWARD
OF 35-45-KT SSWLY LLJ AXIS.  40-50 KT EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES AND
250-400 J/KG EFFECTIVE SRH WILL FAVOR OCNL SUPERCELL AND BOWING
STRUCTURES...WHICH WILL ENHANCED LOCALIZED HAIL/GUST POTENTIAL
RESPECTIVELY.

..EDWARDS.. 10/05/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   34899739 35609656 35959667 36099693 36139724 36159757
            36409711 36729655 37159589 37529558 37859532 38149491
            37859470 37169474 36719490 36179519 35609558 35139580
            34909606 34899739 

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