MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1760
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0749 PM CDT TUE OCT 04 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN KS AND NERN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 050049Z - 050315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...WITH THE APPROACHING 02Z EXPIRATION TIME OF TORNADO
   WATCHES 490/491...A CONTINUED SVR RISK EWD ACROSS PARTS OF SERN KS
   AND NERN OK COULD WARRANT DOWNSTREAM SVR TSTM WATCH ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...ONGOING SUPERCELL CLUSTERS AND SHORT QUASI-LINEAR
   CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS FROM ERN KS TO N-CNTRL OK WILL CONTINUE TO
   SPREAD EWD/SEWD THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
   THE 00Z OUN RAOB SAMPLED MODERATE INSTABILITY -- MLCAPE AROUND 
   2000 J/KG -- FEEDING THIS ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH AROUND 45-50 KT OF
   DEEP SHEAR. THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE FROM
   PARTS OF SRN KS INTO OK...WHILE A COOLER/DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER
   FARTHER N WILL LIMIT THE SVR RISK. CONTINUED NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING
   OF THE LLJ...AND RELATED WAA...MAY FOSTER UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH
   INTO AN MCS STRUCTURE...WITH LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. THIS
   MAY NECESSITATE NEW WW ISSUANCE ACROSS PARTS OF SERN KS AND NERN
   OK...AFFECTING THE ICT/TSA/OUN CWA/S....AS WW/S 490 AND 491 EXPIRE
   AT 02Z. NOCTURNAL GAINS IN MLCINH...THE NARROW WIDTH OF THE
   NON-NEGLIGIBLE BUOYANCY CORRIDOR...COUPLED WITH THE STRONGER DEEP
   ASCENT GAINING LATITUDINAL DISPLACEMENT FROM THE STRONGER
   BUOYANCY...COULD BE MITIGATING FACTORS FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR
   RISK.

   ..COHEN/EDWARDS/THOMPSON.. 10/05/2016


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   37809652 38319606 38189542 37399549 36759568 36459585
               36189636 36189708 36539728 37809652