ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 042350 
SPC MCD 042350 
NEZ000-KSZ000-050145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1758
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0650 PM CDT TUE OCT 04 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN KS...SERN NEB

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 490...

VALID 042350Z - 050145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 490 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE SVR-TSTM/TORNADO RISK CONTINUES IN WW 490.

DISCUSSION...RADAR LOOPS SUGGEST SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS BECOMING
ESTABLISHED FROM THE WICHITA AREA SWD INTO FAR NRN OK. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY TRACK ENEWD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SVR
HAIL/WIND MAY OCCUR. THE ICT VWP INDICATES AROUND 200 M2/S2 OF
0-1-KM SRH...AND FURTHER GAINS IN LOW-LEVEL SRH MAY OCCUR WITH
NOCTURNAL DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...PRIOR TO SUBSTANTIAL
INCREASES IN MLCINH. A TORNADO COULD OCCUR WITH THE MOST
DISCRETE/SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS.

MORE QUASI-LINEAR MODES ACCOMPANY ONGOING CONVECTION FARTHER N FROM
NERN KS INTO SERN NEB...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE SPREADING
EWD/NEWD. DMGG WINDS...SVR HAIL...AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO COULD
ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY EVOLVING AMIDST STRONG LOW-LEVEL/DEEP SHEAR.

..COHEN.. 10/04/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   37169803 37809811 39249770 39839741 40859675 40069604
            38999608 37789645 37199706 37169803 

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