ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 042308 
SPC MCD 042308 
IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-050115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1757
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0608 PM CDT TUE OCT 04 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN NEB...WRN IA...SERN SD...FAR SWRN
MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 042308Z - 050115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A LOW-POTENTIAL/ISOLATED SVR RISK MAY OCCUR WITH TSTMS
SPREADING NEWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-MO VALLEY THROUGH THE
EVENING. WHILE CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...WW
ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOPS IMPLY A COMPACT MIDLEVEL PERTURBATION
APPROACHING THE MID-MO VALLEY. PRECEDING STRONG DEEP ASCENT HAS
ENCOURAGED THE RECENT UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM PARTS OF
E-CNTRL TO NERN NEB. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD NEWD THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP SHEAR MAY SUPPORT ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE COOL/MODESTLY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER -- AND LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR APPRECIABLE POSITIVE
THETA-E ADVECTION NEAR THE SFC -- BUOYANCY IS QUITE LIMITED AS
LOW-LEVEL STATIC STABILITY IS CONSIDERABLE. AS SUCH...ANY
TORNADO/DMGG-WIND POTENTIAL WILL BE MINIMAL...AND THE
CLUSTER/QUASI-LINEAR MODES SHOULD LIMIT THE SVR-HAIL RISK.
NEVERTHELESS...A FEW EMBEDDED ROTATING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MAY
OCCUR...AND AN ISOLATED SVR TSTM CANNOT ENTIRELY BE RULED OUT.

..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 10/04/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON   41449718 42829696 43609664 43699593 42659567 41869572
            41459619 41449718 

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