ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 031846 SPC MCD 031846 NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-031945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1750 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0146 PM CDT MON OCT 03 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME EASTERN WY INTO WESTERN NEB...WESTERN SD...SOUTHWEST ND AND SOUTHEAST MT CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 031846Z - 031945Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING MONITORED ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN WY...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION THIS AFTERNOON NEAR AND TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST FROM WESTERN NEB TO SOUTHEAST MT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE-WEATHER THREATS. A WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED AT THIS TIME. DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED AN INCREASE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHEAST WY WHERE THE GREATEST 12-HR 500-MB HEIGHT FALLS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY CORRIDOR. THIS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY CORRIDOR EXTENDED INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS STATES...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LEE TROUGH AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEAST MT. ADDITIONAL HEIGHT FALLS AND GREATER FORCING FOR ASCENT ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING AS A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES FROM NORTHEAST UT/SOUTHWEST WY INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY 04/00Z. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED AN INCREASE IN CONVERGENCE AS A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO FAR EASTERN WY AND NEAR THE DEEPENING SOUTHEAST MT SURFACE LOW. IN ADDITION...STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER WINDS/SHEAR COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT AS ACTIVITY SPREADS INTO WESTERN NEB/SD AND SOUTHEAST MT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ..PETERS/HART.. 10/03/2016 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW... LAT...LON 45600587 46610563 47170343 45810198 44210140 42340052 41370069 41110157 41280271 42130372 44040433 45050520 45600587 NNNN