ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 281844 
SPC MCD 281844 
VAZ000-NCZ000-282015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1739
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0144 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN/ERN VA AND NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 281844Z - 282015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT...INCLUDING A RISK FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...IS INCREASING. WW ISSUANCE
IS LIKELY.

DISCUSSION...RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE AN
INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE MCD AREA AS FILTERED DIURNAL
HEATING HAS OCCURRED ALONG/S OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
WRN NC NNEWD INTO PARTS OF SRN/ERN VA. WHILE SLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE
RELATIVELY WEAK ATTM PER 18Z SFC OBSERVATIONS AND AREA VWPS...THEY
ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LOW OVER IND CONTINUES
MOVING SWD. WINDS DO STRENGTHEN/VEER WITH HEIGHT AT MID-LEVELS...
WITH LATEST RAP MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTING EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 35-45 KT. A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ALONG
WITH SOME SFC HEATING HAS ALLOWED MLCAPE TO INCREASE BETWEEN
1000-1500 J/KG. THIS COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND PERHAPS BOWING
SEGMENTS...WITH STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

..GLEASON/HART.. 09/28/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...GSP...

LAT...LON   35758112 37157921 37837801 37827709 37497631 37067627
            36527656 35097895 35187998 35758112 

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