ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 210426 
SPC MCD 210426 
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-210630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1724
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN...NERN IA AND WRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 486...

VALID 210426Z - 210630Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 486
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH A SWLY LLJ
INTERACTING WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM SWRN MN THROUGH NRN AND
ERN IA. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES 2000-3000 J/KG MUCAPE OVER SRN
MN INTO NRN IA.  MOREOVER...40+ KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS SUPPORTING A
FEW PERSISTENT ELEVATED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WHICH /IN ADDITION TO
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY/ SHOULD AUGMENT
THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL NEXT COUPLE HOURS. WITH TIME STORMS MAY
CONGEAL INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS WITH AN INCREASING DAMAGING
WIND THREAT FROM SERN MN INTO WRN WI AND NERN IA.

..DIAL.. 09/21/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...

LAT...LON   44369446 44629214 44149069 43129045 42679089 43369277
            43759424 44369446 

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