ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 172023 
SPC MCD 172023 
PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-172230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1708
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0323 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN OHIO...NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...AND WESTERN
NEW YORK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 172023Z - 172230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN
OHIO...NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...AND WESTERN NEW YORK. ISOLATED
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST CORES

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT ACROSS EASTERN OHIO...NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...AND WESTERN NEW
YORK. HERE...MIXED-LAYER CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KNOTS WILL SUPPORT AT
LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS.
EFFECTIVE STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES AROUND 200 M2/S2 MAY
SUPPORT A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO. GIVEN POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THE
HAIL THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED. OVERALL...THE MARGINAL/ISOLATED/BRIEF
NATURE OF THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY WATCH.

..MARSH/THOMPSON.. 09/17/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON   40458233 41718199 42568086 43147973 43097868 42597805
            41637828 40877868 40297974 39948063 40068180 40458233 

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