ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 171938 
SPC MCD 171938 
TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-172145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1706
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0238 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...NERN NM AND THE WRN TX AND OK PANHANDLES

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 171938Z - 172145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
INTO THE EVENING OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

DISCUSSION...THIS AFTERNOON A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS
FROM THE SRN TX PANHANDLE WWD INTO NERN NM. A LEE TROUGH STRETCHES
FROM SERN CO SWWD THROUGH NERN NM. STORMS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN CO INTO NRN NM AS WELL AS
ALONG THE LEE TROUGH. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE
IN A NARROW CORRIDOR NW OF THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND EAST
OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH AROUND MLCAPE 1500 J/KG MLCAPE. MUCH OF
THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE AND NERN CO HAS BEEN STABILIZED
BY EARLIER CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STRONG DIABATIC WARMING SHOULD LEAD
TO RAPID RECOVERY OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
MOREOVER...THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD RETREAT NWD AS THE LLJ
STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING. STORMS WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY AS THEY
CONTINUE SPREADING EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DISCRETE CELLS
INCLUDING SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE LIKELY WITH INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS
LATER THIS EVENING SUPPORTED BY A STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ.

..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 09/17/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36200427 37490353 38170289 37760208 36360216 35170227
            35310399 36200427 

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