ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 171933 
SPC MCD 171933 
TXZ000-NMZ000-172030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1705
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SE NM...A SMALL PART OF FAR W TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 171933Z - 172030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE
IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS...AND PERHAPS THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT
OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE E SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTO AND GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS OF SE NM AND FAR W TX.  A MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
PRESENT TO THE E OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
HOLDING IN THE 60S AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S.  THESE
BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES...ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE-STRONG BUOYANCY /MLCAPE AOA
2500-3000 J PER KG/.  THOUGH LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS
LACKING ACROSS THIS AREA...THE TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS SHOULD SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON...GIVEN
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT.  THE MORE INTENSE/PERSISTENT
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...AS WELL AS DAMAGING
OUTFLOW WINDS.  ADDITIONALLY...THOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG...THE RELATIVELY MOIST ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS THAT
AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

..THOMPSON.. 09/17/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   31990472 32420490 32850522 33200533 33590529 33940520
            34070496 34150420 33990370 33680344 33220333 32530335
            32020358 31800383 31780443 31990472 

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