MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1701
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0424 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 162124Z - 162300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A BRIEF TORNADO ALONG WITH HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
   WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN IL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WW
   ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREATS.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE
   ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
   70S F. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH A MAXIMUM
   ANALYZED IN SE MO NEAR THE IL STATELINE WHERE MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED
   NEAR 2000 J/KG ACCORDING TO RAP DATA. IN ADDITION...THE WSR-88D VWP
   AT ST LOUIS HAS 30 TO 35 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WITH SUBSTANTIAL
   DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FROM 0 TO 2 KM AGL. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
   STORM ROTATION WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE NEAR THE
   MAXIMUM OF INSTABILITY. DUE TO BACKED SFC WINDS ACROSS SRN IL...A
   POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO WILL EXIST AS A SUPERCELL ONGOING NEAR
   THE MO-IL STATELINE...TRACKS EWD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
   STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

   ..BROYLES/DARROW.. 09/16/2016


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   37918788 37688916 37808970 38059020 38508991 38588929
               38628816 37918788