ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 150702 SPC MCD 150702 TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-150800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1688 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0202 AM CDT THU SEP 15 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...NE/E-CNTRL NM...FAR WRN TX/OK PANHANDLES CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 150702Z - 150800Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT SUMMARY...LOCALIZED TORNADO THREAT WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO ACROSS PORTIONS OF ROOSEVELT AND CURRY COUNTIES IN E-CNTRL NM. HAIL THREAT WILL EXIST IN THE SAME AREA AS WELL AS FARTHER N ACROSS NE NM AND THE ADJACENT WRN TX/OK PANHANDLES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SVR THREAT WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW. DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LONE...PREDOMINATELY STATIONARY SUPERCELL OVER NW ROOSEVELT AND WRN CURRY COUNTIES IN E-CNTRL NM. FAVORABLE JUXTAPOSITION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /AS A RESULT OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH/ IS RESULTING IN A LOCALIZED AREA OF MINIMAL CINH. LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES HERE ARE ALSO FAVORABLE WITH RECENT FDX VAD SAMPLING 135 M2/S2 SRH IN THE 0-1 KM LAYER. THERE IS SOME WEAKNESS IN THE WIND FIELDS IN THE 2-4 KM LAYER BEFORE FLOW STRENGTHENS AGAIN ABOVE 5 KM. EVEN SO...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS NEAR 40 KT...WHICH IS SUFFICIENT FOR MAINTENANCE OF A ROTATING UPDRAFT. FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING RESULTS IN TOO MUCH SURFACE-BASED CINH TO MAINTAIN SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN UNTIL THE STORM BECOMES ELEVATED. THE HAIL THREAT WILL PERSIST EVEN AFTER THE STORM BECOMES ELEVATED. ADDITIONAL ELEVATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED ACROSS NE NM AS WAA ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET LIFTS PARCELS TO THE LFC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THESE STORMS LIKELY HAVE BASES NEAR 850 MB. A FEW STRONG UPDRAFTS ARE POSSIBLE AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KT WILL SUPPORT SOME MODEST STORM ORGANIZATION. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED HAIL IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ..MOSIER/EDWARDS.. 09/15/2016 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ... LAT...LON 34490414 35310422 36730354 36920256 35810225 34440250 33820314 33880372 34490414 NNNN