ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 141733 
SPC MCD 141733 
NHZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-141900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1685
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN PA...SERN NY...SRN VT...NWRN CT...WRN
MA...SWRN NH

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 141733Z - 141900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH STORMS
FORMING ALONG A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.  A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEPENING CONVECTION
ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS NERN PA...ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF
THE INFLUENCE OF A DIFFUSE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRECEDING THE MAIN
WAVE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.  STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM ERN PA INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE
A NARROW CORRIDOR OF WEAK-MODERATE BUOYANCY WILL SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  THOUGH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE POOR
AND BUOYANCY SOMEWHAT LIMITED...DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR AND STRAIGHT
HODOGRAPH STRUCTURES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SPLITTING STORMS WITH
SUPERCELL STRUCTURE.  WLY MIDLEVEL FLOW OF 30-50 KT AND WEAK
INVERTED-V STRUCTURES IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH 20-30 F
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS MAY FAVOR ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING
OUTFLOW WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.  OVERALL STORM COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE MODEST
BUOYANCY AND POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGESTS ONLY A MARGINAL
SEVERE RISK.

..THOMPSON/GRAMS.. 09/14/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

LAT...LON   42197236 41837268 41197420 40967571 41217696 41497711
            41677636 42087512 42517424 43217274 43217225 42987199
            42597198 42197236 

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