MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1679
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1137 PM CDT SAT SEP 10 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN NY THROUGH WRN VT

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 110437Z - 110630Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE AT LEAST A MODEST THREAT FOR
   MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS NEXT FEW HOURS. TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

   DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS MORNING...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
   ALONG AN EWD-ADVANCING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NRN THROUGH WCNTRL NY
   HAS SHOWN A RECENT INTENSITY INCREASE. VWP DATA INDICATE THE LLJ HAS
   STRENGTHENED TO AROUND 50 KT...AND LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINTS DOWNSTREAM
   FROM THE LINE ARE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F SUPPORTING MUCAPE NEAR
   1000 J/KG. THE MOIST STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLJ INTERACTING WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL
   CONTINUE TO PROMOTE EWD DEVELOPMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY NEXT FEW
   HOURS...ESPECIALLY AS FORCING FOR DEEPER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A
   NEGATIVE-TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO OVERTAKE THE REGION FROM
   THE WEST. PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH OCCASIONAL BOWING SEGMENTS. 

   OTHER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME
   ACROSS ERN NY. THIS ACTIVITY IS APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY
   ELEVATED ABOVE A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN WEAK EFFECTIVE
   0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY DESPITE LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS.
   ANY SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS CONVECTION IS CONDITIONAL UPON UPDRAFTS
   BECOMING ROOTED IN THE SFC LAYER.

   ..DIAL/GUYER.. 09/11/2016


   ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

   LAT...LON   44917409 44937332 44497309 43847324 43247355 42607424
               42487538 43027586 43637534 44427461 44917409