ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 101716 
SPC MCD 101716 
NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-101945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1673
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 PM CDT SAT SEP 10 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF KY...OH...SERN INDIANA...WRN PA...SWRN
NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 101716Z - 101945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SVR TSTMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED DMGG WIND GUSTS IS INCREASING WITHIN AN EXTENSIVE
CORRIDOR FROM PORTIONS OF KY NEWD TO PORTIONS OF SWRN NY. ONE OR
MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TO ADDRESS
THIS ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ACROSS PARTS
OF SWRN KY...NEAR AND JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WRN
LOWER MI TO THE MID-SOUTH. OTHER CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP NEWD IN
PROXIMITY TO THIS EWD-PROGRESSING BOUNDARY AND A PRECEDING
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS WILL OCCUR AS
DIABATIC SFC-LAYER HEATING CONTINUES...IN SUPPORT OF MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION AMIDST DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. DESPITE MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE PRESENCE OF 30-40 KT
OF FLOW IN THE 1-3-KM-AGL LAYER PER AREA VWPS WILL SUPPORT A RISK
FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS BANDS OF CONVECTION
FORM PARALLEL TO THE FRONT/TROUGH. PEAK CONVECTIVE INTENSITY WILL
LIKELY OCCUR AROUND THE 2100Z-2300Z TIME FRAME...WHEN CONVECTION
ENCOUNTERS THE STEEPEST LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES -- ESPECIALLY WITHIN A
CORRIDOR FROM CLEVELAND TO COLUMBUS TO CINCINNATI TO LOUISVILLE.

..COHEN/GRAMS.. 09/10/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...
IND...PAH...

LAT...LON   42547902 42227869 41257975 38898254 37098510 36798660
            37028774 38228693 41568222 42438051 42547902 

NNNN