ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 092329 
SPC MCD 092329 
MOZ000-100100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1670
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0629 PM CDT FRI SEP 09 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN/CNTRL MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 092329Z - 100100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND THREAT ALONG
WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW CONVECTION FIRING ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS PARTS OF SRN/CNTRL MO FROM
EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN DISPLACED TO THE
S OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. RECENT VWP FROM KSGF SHOW SWLY WINDS
VEERING TO WLY AND STRENGTHENING TO AROUND 30 KT AT 6
KM...SUPPORTING AROUND 25-35 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR PER 23Z RAP
MESOANALYSIS. THIS SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT MAINLY MULTICELL
STRUCTURES...WITH PERHAPS SOME TRANSIENT WEAK SUPERCELLS. THE
AIRMASS ACROSS THE MCD REGION REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
MLCAPE GENERALLY RANGING FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...ISOLATED STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
SHOULD BE THE MAIN RISK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...ALTHOUGH
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE LACK OF EVEN
STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW AND THE EXPECTATION FOR CONVECTION TO WEAKEN
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WW
ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

..GLEASON/GUYER.. 09/09/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   36909437 37649393 38159280 38639066 38049030 37309105
            36729294 36659410 36909437 

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