ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 091542 
SPC MCD 091542 
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-091715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1665
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1042 AM CDT FRI SEP 09 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NEBRASKA...WESTERN IOWA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 091542Z - 091715Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA.  LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY AS IT SPREADS/DEVELOPS INTO WESTERN IOWA.  SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG FRONTAL
ZONE FROM SCNTRL INTO NERN NEBRASKA.  THIS ACTIVITY IS EVOLVING
WITHIN A FAIRLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.  WHILE INHIBITION WAS NOTED
ON 12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
APPEARS MOSTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR WHAT IS LIKELY NEAR-SFC BASED TSTMS. 
LATEST MRMS DATA SUGGESTS SEVERAL CELLS ARE PRODUCING AT LEAST
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREAT AS
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EVOLVE OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA.  THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD SPREAD INTO WESTERN IOWA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE
SFC FRONT SURGES SEWD.

..DARROW/GRAMS.. 09/09/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   41139962 41819852 42499564 41809436 40729495 40009850
            41139962 

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