ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 060431 
SPC MCD 060431 
NEZ000-060500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1645
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 PM CDT MON SEP 05 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 468...

VALID 060431Z - 060500Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 468
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY PERSIST
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.  AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
AND/OR WATCH EXTENSION-IN-TIME WILL VERY LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED AND
THE EXISTING WATCH MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY DEPENDENT ON SHORT-TERM
TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CNTRL NEB
WITHIN A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME WITH 50-KT SOUTHERLY
FLOW NOTED AT H85 PER KUEX VAD DATA.  MRMS MESH DATA HAVE SHOWN A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN POTENTIAL HAIL DIAMETER WITH THE STRONGER STORMS
AND THIS HAS BEEN COINCIDENT WITH THE MARGINALIZATION OF SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES ACROSS CNTRL NEB OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS. 
NONETHELESS...A SUFFICIENTLY BUOYANT/SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL
CONDITIONALLY SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY TONIGHT AS STORMS
GRADUALLY MOVE ALONG AND N OF THE SURFACE FRONT DRAPED OVER THE
SANDHILLS.

..SMITH.. 09/06/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   41510069 42579932 42709814 42099772 41029901 40939965
            41510069 

NNNN