ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 050216 
SPC MCD 050216 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-050315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1639
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0916 PM CDT SUN SEP 04 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN SD...SERN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 466...

VALID 050216Z - 050315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 466
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT IS INCREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
WW466.

DISCUSSION...HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER SWRN SD/NEB
PANHANDLE HAS MATURED INTO A WELL-DEFINED MCS OVER SCNTRL SD. 
LATEST RADAR DATA SUGGESTS AN MCV HAS FORMED SW OF PIR OVER JONES
COUNTY.  A BOWING SEGMENT IS SURGING NEWD IN EXCESS OF 40KT IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE AND IS LIKELY GENERATING DAMAGING WINDS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BOW...ESPECIALLY LYMAN COUNTY SD. 
THIS COMPLEX SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN HALF OF WW466 OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING
ACROSS NCNTRL SD INTO ERN ND.  HOWEVER...MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS
STRUGGLED TO ATTAIN SEVERE LEVELS.  FOR THIS REASON...MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL MAY BE THE GREATEST RISK WITH THIS ELEVATED OR NEAR-SFC
BASED CONVECTION.

..DARROW.. 09/05/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON   43350115 46569941 46569606 43359795 43350115 

NNNN