MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1638
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0857 PM CDT SUN SEP 04 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SWRN/S-CENTRAL SD...WRN NEB...NWRN
   KS...EXTREME NERN CO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 465...

   VALID 050157Z - 050330Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 465
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH
   LINES/CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS THROUGH 04Z...WITH ISOLATED LARGE
   HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE. A RELATIVELY LOCALIZED THREAT FOR A TORNADO
   EXISTS WITH ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA FOR THE
   NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WHERE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS
   RECENTLY EXTENDED EAST.

   DISCUSSION...SEVERAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE IN PROGRESS IN ACROSS
   WW 465 AT 0155Z...INCLUDING AN INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED LINEAR SYSTEM
   ACROSS THE SD/NORTHERN NEB PORTION OF THE WW...CLUSTERS OF SEVERE
   STORMS OVER NORTHWEST KS...AND MORE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS OVER
   WESTERN/CENTRAL NEB.

   LATEST MESOANALYSIS AND 00Z UPPER AIR DATA SHOW MODERATE-LOCALLY
   STRONG INSTABILITY /MAXIMIZED OVER CENTRAL NEB/ ACROSS THE REMAINING
   VALID PORTIONS OF WW 465 ALONG WITH 40-55 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR.
   LINEAR/CLUSTER MODES HAVE BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   WW AREA AS MERGING COLD POOLS AND INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
   PROMOTE UPSCALE GROWTH...AND A BOOKEND VORTEX HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED
   SOUTHEAST OF PHILIP SD WHERE SEVERAL REPORTS OF SEVERE WINDS HAVE
   BEEN RECEIVED. SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WW AREA
   WILL SOON MOVE INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WW 466 WITH A MORE
   CONCENTRATED DAMAGING-WIND THREAT THROUGH LATE EVENING.

   STORMS OVER NORTHWEST KS CONTINUE TO TRANSITION INTO A MORE LINEAR
   MODE...THOUGH EMBEDDED STRONGER UPDRAFTS SUGGESTS ISOLATED LARGE
   HAIL REMAINS POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.

   MORE ISOLATED SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEB
   DURING THE PAST 1-2 HOURS.  ALTHOUGH AT LEAST SOME TORNADO RISK
   REMAINS FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...INCREASING CINH WITH TIME WILL
   RESULT IN DIMINISHED TORNADO POTENTIAL.  REFER TO MCD 1637 FOR
   DETAILS IN THIS AREA.

   SOME SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE BEYOND 04Z...AND TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE NEED FOR A NEW WATCH...OR A
   TEMPORAL/AREAL EXTENSION OF THE EXISTING WATCH...AS THE SCHEDULED
   EXPIRATION OF WW 465 APPROACHES.

   ..BUNTING.. 09/05/2016


   ATTN...WFO...ABR...GID...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...BOU...

   LAT...LON   38950018 38390135 38670201 39830212 40810230 41240229
               41860218 42450185 43150183 43640178 43840151 43850098
               43680045 43469996 43179977 41820017 38950018