ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 050050 
SPC MCD 050050 
NEZ000-050245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1637
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 PM CDT SUN SEP 04 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 050050Z - 050245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SUPERCELL OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...WITH A
RISK FOR A TORNADO ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING GUSTS.  TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR EITHER A SMALL TORNADO WATCH...OR
AN EXPANSION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 465.

DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WAS DEVELOPING APPROXIMATELY
25 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF BROKEN BOW NEB AT 0045Z. LATEST
MESOANALYSIS REVEALS A MODEST BAROCLINIC ZONE/BUOYANCY GRADIENT IN
THIS AREA WHERE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTHEAST HAS REDUCED
DIURNAL HEATING. ADDITIONALLY...LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SLIGHTLY
BACKED ACROSS CENTRAL NEB...AND COMBINED WITH A STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL JET HAS RESULTED IN EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES ABOVE 250 M2/S2
ALONG AND EAST OF THE DEVELOPING STORM. LCL HEIGHTS ALSO LOWER WITH
EASTWARD EXTENT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
LOWER AS SUBTLE NOCTURNAL COOLING ENSUES.

WITH FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...THE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY CONFINED SPATIAL EXTENT OF THE
FAVORABLE TORNADO ENVIRONMENT...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
FOR EITHER A SMALL/SHORT-DURATION TORNADO WATCH OR AN AREAL
EXTENSION OF WW 465 DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

..BUNTING/EDWARDS.. 09/05/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   40779963 40920040 41180075 41480074 41710071 41840052
            41940004 41979971 41919929 41729893 41369866 40969883
            40809917 40779963 

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