ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 042356 
SPC MCD 042356 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-050130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1636
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 PM CDT SUN SEP 04 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN SD...SOUTHEAST ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 466...

VALID 042356Z - 050130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 466
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  LARGE HAIL AND SOME DAMAGING
WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

DISCUSSION...SEVERAL DEVELOPING CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ARE NOTED ACROSS
THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS THIS EVENING.  ONE EVOLVING CLUSTER IS
EXPANDING NEWD ACROSS CNTRL SD ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THIS REGION.  LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THE
STRONGEST UPDRAFTS...ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF LYMAN COUNTY SD PER
LATEST MRMS DATA.

OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO...POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY
INCREASED FROM NEAR THE SD BORDER OVER MCINTOSH COUNTY ND...ARCING
NNEWD ALONG THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY INTO NWRN MN.  THESE
ELEVATED STORMS HAVE YET TO ATTAIN SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH
SMALL HAIL IS LIKELY OCCURRING WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.  IF THIS
ACTIVITY CAN PROPAGATE INTO THE WARM SECTOR OVER SERN ND THERE WILL
LIKELY BE INTENSIFICATION SUCH THAT LARGER HAIL AND POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING WINDS COULD DEVELOP.  LLJ IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE ERN DAKOTAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THIS SHOULD ENABLE
UPSCALE-EVOLVING CLUSTERS AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..DARROW.. 09/04/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON   43360114 46569942 46579605 43359795 43360114 

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