ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 042307 SPC MCD 042307 NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-050100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1635 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0607 PM CDT SUN SEP 04 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NWRN KS...NERN CO...WRN NEB...SWRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 465... VALID 042307Z - 050100Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 465 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WITH MORE CONCENTRATED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY BECOMING AN INCREASING THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING AS STORMS MERGE INTO LINES AND BOWING SEGMENTS. DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE AT 2255Z SHOWS SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS WW 465...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE NOTED SINCE 22Z. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTH-CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST SD...WITH STORMS FARTHER SOUTH NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH/CONFLUENCE ZONE. THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE WATCH AREA REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE-LOCALLY STRONG MIXED-LAYER INSTABILITY AND 45-55 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...AND SEVERAL SUPERCELLS/STORM SPLITS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH LONG-LIVED LEFT- AND RIGHT-MOVING STORMS. IN THE SHORT TERM...A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH SUPERCELLS/CLUSTERS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SIG SEVERE HAIL ALSO REMAINS POSSIBLE. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP PROMOTE UPSCALE GROWTH INTO BOWING SEGMENTS THIS EVENING WITH AN INCREASED RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS. RAP FORECAST SOUNDING HODOGRAPHS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL CURVATURE THIS EVENING AND ANY SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELL WILL HAVE SOME RISK FOR A TORNADO...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NEB PORTION OF THE WW AREA. ..BUNTING.. 09/04/2016 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 38860049 38510137 38690211 39260268 41060322 42150344 42880362 43550369 43870337 43970290 44030214 44030174 43840129 43570096 43010070 41400044 39220024 38860049 NNNN